England needs more new homes than previously estimated, new analysis suggests

An analysis of Census information for England shows that over 240,000 new homes a year are needed as demand continues to significantly outstrip supply
The analysis by housing academic Dr Alan Holmans published by housing and planning charity, the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA), shows that the scale of housing need is greater than currently estimated.

Holmans, from the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, says in the report that housing requirements are on average around 240,000 to 245,000 per year, with around 60% of all demand and need in the four southern regions of England.
This is up to 10,000 more homes per year than the generally used 235,000 figure. The report also shows that house building levels are slowing rising from their lowest levels since the 1920s, at around 100,000 per year.

'This research, the first of its kind to analyse the Census 2011 data, is a crucial reminder of the desperate need for more and better housing in the right places. We have a hopelessly inadequate supply of housing and a serious backlog, as well as chronic affordability problems,' said Kate Henderson, TCPA chief executive.

'While house building levels remain at about 100,000 per year, the Census reveals a staggering need for over 240,000 homes per year. The research also shows that nearly one third of newly arising housing need requires some subsidy; without this investment affordability, overcrowding and ultimately homelessness will worsen,' she added.

'We urgently need a new vision for housing and the development of new communities. That new vision has to ensure a substantial increase in the supply of new homes and address affordability. At the same time, we must focus on building successful new communities, whether as part of urban regeneration or through new Garden Cities. This is essential not just to our economic future but also the social and environmental wellbeing of our country,' she added.

The figures make projections for 2021 and extend them to 2031 to enable longer term decisions for land use management, planning and local government. The projections in the report, together with adjustments for gains, losses and vacancies in stock, suggest that over 240,000 additional homes will be required to meet newly arising demand and need.

The report says that even if the economy remains depressed and household formation rates remain low, there will still be almost a 20% increase in the number of households over the 20 year period to 2031. This is mainly because of the expected continued growth in population.

It also shows that there was an abrupt break with longer term trends in household formation in England between 2001 and 2011. To take the most obvious example, the number of one person households in 2011 according to the Census was nearly one million lower than the 2008 based projections published by the Department of Communities and Local Government in 2011.
Other large scale shifts in the mix of household types include far more couple plus other adult households than expected. In part this is about younger people staying at home or sharing accommodation for longer. But that is not the whole story as changes are observed in all age groups.

Applying past trends based mainly on household composition would suggest that some 68% of new households would be in the market sector of owner occupation or private market renting without benefits, but that housing to meet nearly one third of newly arising need would require some subsidy.

At the regional level, not far short of a quarter of all housing demand and need is likely to be concentrated in London, with over 60% in the four southern regions. But all regions require significant additional housing investment.

'It is enormously important that we plan for recovery and deliver much higher output levels. Otherwise if recovery happens increasing house prices will worsen affordability. Planning based on the past few years of recession will simply build in the next crisis,' said Professor Christine Whitehead, who was involved in the research that lies behind the report.

Chris Tinker, board director at home builders Crest Nicholson, which supported the research, said that the study re affirms the on going need for over 240,000 new homes per annum, 60% of which is required in London and the four main Southern regions.

'With developer's consented land banks amounting to less than two year's housing demand there is therefore an urgent need for Local Authorities and developers to work together, especially in key demand areas, to identify and plan for a significant increase in new communities within which well designed homes can be delivered. A failure to meet housing demand will continue to undermine affordability and put the future prosperity and success of our communities at risk,' he added.
propertywire