Thursday, 14 November 2013

Government's Housing Initiatives

There's been a lot of hoo-haa recently about the Government's housing initiatives, so I figure I may as well wade into the fray as well.  Some experts believe that these schemes are largely responsible for the jump in mortgage lending.  

In August, mortgage approvals achieved their highest level since March 2008.  They jumped from 58,238 in July to 60,624, and are now 30% higher than they were last July.  The sudden surge took the Bank by surprise; it had not expected this level of approvals until the end of the year.

Critics, including the International Monetary Fund, Business Secretary Vince Cable, and Raquel Rolnik, the United Nations' unpaid special rapporteur, have all been very vocal.  I too am concerned about the state of the British housing - but for a very different reason.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation estimates Britain is heading for a property shortage of 1m+ homes by 2022 - unless the rate of house-building increases. The problem will be worst in London and the South-East which generate 70% of the demand, but only get 50% of the homes.

It's true that the Coalition has some planning reforms in the pipeline which may help. It's also true that some builders are holding back on developments for which permission has already been granted.  And here we have the crux of the problem: stalemate.  Construction needs to be buoyant to kick-start the economy and vice versa.  

Returning to the pre-crash days when a limited supply of housing fuelled price rises is in no-one's interests.  It seems to me that the Government's initiatives to remedy the situation are laudable.  Although the Help to Buy scheme only currently helps first-time buyers who can already afford a mortgage, conveniently sidelining the whopping deposit (Ј64,000 on average in London), there are plans to extend it in the New Year.

Vince Cable fears that this may overheat the property market, instead of helping it.  This is an eminently valid concern, but it seems to me that we just need to get the housing supply chain moving.  Properly implemented and managed, Help to Buy could be the answer to our housing prayers.
gibbs-gillespie

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